Business outlook slumps on stalling economy

Pre-election predictions of a slumping economy could be borne out if the latest survey of business confidence is a portent of the future. The ANZ National Bank business outlook for November shows the mood of business at its lowest level since the 1987 sharemarket crash but there is no impending crisis.

A net 66 per cent of firms expected general business conditions to deteriorate over the next year – the lowest level of business confidence since the sharemarket crash in the late 1980s. Pessimists accounted for 71 per cent of replies and optimists five per cent.

Firms’ own activity expectations – a key barometer of economic growth prospects – were also crushed. A net zero per cent of respondents expect conditions to improve over the coming year, the lowest level since the grumpy growth period of 2000.

“This level of confidence is indicative of an economy at a stand still and forewarns there could be a negative GDP outturn in the last quarter of 2005 or the first quarter of 2006,” chief economist John McDermot said.

Consistent with the decline in firms’ expectation about their own activity was a fall in profit expectations, employment intentions and investment intentions. No meltdown coming“The potential slowdown has been on the horizon for a while now and has been commented on so often that people are starting to believe the economy is in a meltdown.

It is not. The truth of the matter is that economy grew strongly in the first nine months of 2005, but this expansion looks to be built on unstable foundations. “Unfortunately, it feels like we are walking uphill in a mist of uncertainty and somewhere in that mist is the cliff we could fall down – unless we tread carefully,” Dr McDermott said.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen said the fall in business confidence was no surprise given the sensitivity to official interest rates, which are at their highest level since the official cash rate was introduced in 1999. Briefing papers from the Reserve Bank, issued yesterday, said the economy had serious imbalances. Factors included high domestic demand, core inflation knocking 3 per cent, a widening balance of payments deficit, a high dollar and high house prices.

"All these factors point to a rough landing unless debt-financed consumption begins to slow," Dr Cullen said. Official interest rates are expected to rise to 7.25 per cent next month, despite the gloomy business outlook, falling consumer confidence and official figures showing low migration. Though some commentators had called for a halt to rising interest rates for the sake of the economy, "such pleas will fall on deaf ears", he said.

The Reserve Bank was aware that if higher unit labour costs and higher oil prices were producing inflation, the only way to counter that was by slowing or stopping economic growth. The bank survey showed inflation expectations had again increased, to 3.4 per cent in November, the highest level since the middle of 2000.

www.nbr.co.nz

Alcohol, drugs health concern to young

YOUNG people doubled their alcohol intake between the ages of 12 and 19, according to a Federal Government report.The findings of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2004 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, which included responses from 30,000 young people, also show drug users report poorer health than non-drug users.

Report author David Batts said heart disease, mental illness and asthma were the most commonly reported problems by drug users aged 14-years and older.

"Most strikingly, one in two Australians who had used heroin in the last month (of the 2004 survey) were diagnosed or treated for mental illness in the last 12 months compared with only one in 11 (9 per cent) of those who had not used heroin in the last 12 months," Mr Batts said.
It was not only hard illicit drugs that had harmful effects.

Three in 10 Australians reported they had been verbally or physically abused by someone affected by alcohol in the past 12 months and one in eight had a similar experience with someone affected by illicit drugs.

The legal drugs most available were alcohol and tobacco.

The illicit drugs most available were pharmaceuticals used for non-medical purposes and cannabis.

One in 11 (8.9 per cent) of Australians drank daily and five in 11, or 42.2 per cent drank weekly, with two in 11 people (16.4 per cent) saying they did not drink at the time of the survey.

One in 14 (17 per cent) of young people aged 12-15 said they had used an illicit drug, cannabis being the most common.

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Microsoft to launch next-generation games technology

Games industry observers have predicted that it will be at least a year before competitors Sony and Nintendo release their versions of next-generation gaming technology, putting Microsoft at a considerable advantage in its effort to revolutionize the gaming industry and secure itself a place within the emerging digital entertainment industry.

"The debut of Xbox 360 marks one of the biggest consumer launches in Microsoft's history," said Robbie Bach, president of the Entertainment and Devices Division at Microsoft and chief Xbox officer. "With its sheer power, portfolio of graphically stunning games, rich online capabilities, and features for enjoying music, movies and photos, Xbox 360 delivers integrated digital gaming and entertainment experiences that simply can't be matched."

Microsoft is hoping to sell over one million Xbox 360s within its first three months on the market, and with plans to deliver a new operating system that will optimize Xbox 360's facilities and features, it is difficult to estimate the extent to which Microsoft is set to profit from the introduction of its new product.

With most of its appeal attributable to the product's enhanced action imagery and next generation graphics, there is every reason to believe that Microsoft will set a new standard for gaming technology. The advances that digital technology can lend to the gaming industry are sure to make new products every bit the virtual reality experience games fanatics appreciate.

www.cbronline.com

PepsiCo to Buy Sara Lee Nuts Business in Netherlands, Belgium and France

Deal for Duyvis and Benenuts Will Make PepsiCo Europe's Leader in Branded Nuts

PepsiCo .- Has reached agreement on the principal terms and conditions
for the purchase of Sara Lee Corporation's European nuts business in
the Netherlands, Belgium and France for a price of euro 130 million,
the company announced today.

The transaction will broaden PepsiCo's portfolio in the European snack market.

The business being purchased sells products under the Duyvis brand in
the Netherlands and Belgium and the Benenuts brand in France, the
leading nut brands in their respective markets. The products are
principally roasted and coated bagged peanuts, but also include mixes,
noble nuts and extruded snacks.

"These are top-quality brands with strong market positions," said
Michael D. White, chairman and chief executive officer of PepsiCo
International. "They will broaden our product portfolio by immediately
giving PepsiCo a strong position in branded nuts, a large category
that's increasingly popular among consumers interested in convenience,
great taste and nutrition. This also will give us an important source
of products to sell in other markets where we have an established nut
business."

The transaction is subject to satisfactory outcome of works council
proceedings, as well as regulatory approvals and clearance by the
Dutch competition authority.

PepsiCo International comprises all of the businesses outside the
United States and Canada of PepsiCo, one of the world's largest food
and beverage companies.

PepsiCo's portfolio includes 16 brands that each generate retail sales
of U.S. $1 billion or more, including Pepsi-Cola, Gatorade, Tropicana,
Lay's, Doritos and Quaker.

www.biz.yahoo.com

Cervical Cancer Shots Win Some Conservative Favor

Conservatives that fought wider access to a "morning-after" pill are
speaking favorably about vaccines against a sexually transmitted cause
of cervical cancer, but some groups may still call for limited use.

The makers of the still-experimental vaccines, Merck & Co. Inc. and
GlaxoSmithKline Plc, have been meeting with advocacy groups to dispel
any concerns that giving the shots might promote sexual activity by
young girls.

The efforts are paying off, as some religious organizations are
welcoming the vaccines as a new weapon against the sexually
transmitted human papilloma virus (HPV). Experts blame HPV for nearly
all cases of cervical cancer.

"We think it's a great idea to have this vaccine," said Dr. Gene Rudd,
associate executive director of the Christian Medical and Dental
Association.

Should studies continue to show solid results, "we think it ought to
be a recommended vaccine," he said.

Rudd's organization was among the opponents of Barr Pharmaceuticals
Inc.'s bid for over-the-counter sales of the Plan B "morning-after"
contraceptive. Some Plan B backers worry the same forces will stymie
the HPV vaccines by arguing their availability could clash with a
message promoting abstinence.

"We do not want to see another instance of ideology trumping the
health and well-being of the American people," Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton, a New York Democrat, wrote in a letter to Health and Human
Services Secretary Mike Leavitt.

Cervical cancer strikes about 10,000 U.S. women a year and kills about
3,900, according to the American Cancer Society.

Merck's vaccine has shown 100 percent protection from the two most
common HPV strains and could win approval next year.

For maximum acceptance, the makers need a strong endorsement from the
Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices, a panel convened by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Schools often follow the
panel's recommendations when deciding which vaccines to require for
students.

While some physicians suggest mandatory vaccination for girls --
possibly at age 11 or 12 -- others want the shots limited to those at
high risk of HPV infection because they have multiple sexual partners.

"You can't get HPV through casual contact, and if you limit your
sexual behavior ... you're not going to have to worry about HPV," said
Dr. Hal Wallis of the Physicians Consortium, which advocates
abstinence until marriage.

By requiring universal vaccination, "we would be literally vaccinating
millions of women who really are at no risk at all," he said.

Urging limits could be a "back-door way" for opponents to defeat the
vaccines, said Susan Wood, a women's health expert who left the Food
and Drug Administration because of its refusal to clear
over-the-counter Plan B. Just as with Plan B, opponents "don't want
widespread availability," she said.

Concerned Women for America, a conservative group that lobbied against
Plan B, has no position on the vaccines yet.

"People do seem more willing to take risks if they think they are not
going to suffer consequences," said Wendy Wright, CWA's executive vice
president. She said she was "encouraged" Merck was pitching the
vaccine as preventing cancer, rather than a sexually transmitted
infection. That could avoid "the very touchy issue of how this virus
is transmitted," she said.

Executives from Merck and Glaxo said they are sensitive to concerns
from groups that teach abstinence.

"Abstinence obviously is the most effective approach to preventing
cervical cancer, but there are many other potential outcomes,"
Margaret McGlynn, president of Merck Vaccines, said at the Reuters
Health Summit this month.

www.cancerpage.com

Macromedia CFO Betsey Nelson Joins Good Technology's Board of Directors

Good Technology, Inc., the leading provider of industry
standards-based enterprise handheld computing software and service,
today announced that Betsey Nelson, Executive Vice President and Chief
Financial Officer of Macromedia (Nasdaq: MACR - News), has joined the
Company's Board of Directors.

"With more than 7,000 corporations using Good Technology's software
and service to manage and secure mission critical enterprise
applications and boost mobile productivity, Good is enabling the next
wave of computing," said Nelson. "I look forward to contributing to
the company's success."

"Betsey brings an immense wealth of financial and operational wisdom
to Good from her experience leading a highly successful public company
with a growing wireless business," said Danny Shader, CEO, Good
Technology. "Good will benefit from Betsey's business expertise as we
continue to grow by serving our worldwide customer base and aligning
with the needs of operators and handheld manufacturers."

Betsey Nelson is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
of Macromedia, Inc. She joined Macromedia in 1996 and has served as
the company's CFO since 1997. She is responsible for all of the
company's operational and administrative functions, including business
development, customer care, finance, investor relations, information
technology, legal, operations, and real estate.

Prior to joining Macromedia, Betsey spent eight years at
Hewlett-Packard, where she held a variety of positions in finance and
corporate development. Betsey holds an MBA in Finance with distinction
from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a BS in
Foreign Service from Georgetown University. She currently serves on
the Boards of Macromedia, CNET Networks and MarketLive.

About Good Technology
Good Technology is the leader in enterprise handheld computing
software and service, using industry standards to provide the
corporate applications enterprises need on the handhelds they choose
over the networks they prefer.

The company's GoodAccess and GoodLink products extend mission-critical
enterprise applications -- including Microsoft Exchange, Oracle,
salesforce.com and Siebel -- to mobile employees when an where they
need them, using end-to-end AES encrypted, FIPS 140-2 certified
security, and cradle-free, real-time synchronization.

GoodLink and GoodAccess are combined enterprise software and service
that run on a variety of devices and networks, freeing customers from
vendor lock-in, and allowing maximum flexibility.

Good Technology is located in Santa Clara, California. For more
information call 1-866-7-BEGOOD and select the option for sales,
e-mail sales@good.com or visit www.good.com.

www.biz.yahoo.com